Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 23.422610 25.571588 27.913542 30.670469 33.846736 37.415353 41.762185
2025-08-10 19.887625 22.742961 26.081428 30.330268 35.679322 42.311918 51.361447
2025-08-17 17.603704 20.859259 24.881055 30.336749 37.748851 47.801144 63.117382
2025-08-24 15.823451 19.272281 23.721462 30.079208 39.294584 52.834231 75.753168
2025-08-31 14.479940 18.036467 22.792266 29.896602 40.800751 58.052588 90.439686
2025-09-07 13.391580 16.994319 21.959241 29.664670 42.107801 63.189591 107.001885
2025-09-14 12.547764 16.186905 21.338313 29.615863 43.633962 69.020307 127.622875
2025-09-21 11.783551 15.411655 20.665343 29.364189 44.729240 74.310084 149.961581
2025-09-28 11.455408 15.227788 20.840127 30.477607 48.419226 85.817546 196.147282
2025-10-05 10.849349 14.578054 20.226491 30.169224 49.370201 91.767620 231.591282
2025-10-12 10.349284 14.048374 19.749196 30.027335 50.607214 98.800083 278.275212
2025-10-19 9.995223 13.714563 19.552559 30.353864 52.862456 109.237279 353.228036
2025-10-26 9.547224 13.215801 19.061701 30.114007 53.944100 117.285144 434.089757
2025-11-02 9.154026 12.780127 18.643944 29.969112 55.239048 126.695215 547.975914
2025-11-09 8.834832 12.442758 18.366225 30.063978 57.134970 139.096399 730.210862
2025-11-16 8.493959 12.049085 17.959521 29.851181 58.241823 149.560308 954.108310
2025-11-23 8.189038 11.696636 17.598640 29.689965 59.458640 161.314089 1291.933572
2025-11-30 7.899581 11.353669 17.229639 29.469416 60.482528 173.135965 1789.276863
2025-12-07 7.656387 11.075105 16.957330 29.425333 61.999001 188.393106 2719.852699
2025-12-14 7.403480 10.766992 16.609686 29.178011 62.891306 201.641367 4187.271773
2025-12-21 7.339217 10.777285 16.853425 30.281971 68.124548 242.972198 14132.440103
2025-12-28 7.106575 10.483788 16.501819 29.976942 68.887459 259.796411 36412.073859
2026-01-04 6.907864 10.240584 16.231786 29.836593 70.179019 282.012299 274632.078262